Prediction Markets
Bubblemaps and CBS's 60 Minutes published a joint investigation identifying nine wallets that profited $2.4M with a 98% win rate on Polymarket's US military operations markets — placed hours to days before public announcements. The on-chain evidence is overwhelming; the legal framework is not.
Regulation & Policy
Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn raised CLARITY Act odds to 75%, citing the Senate Banking 15-9 vote and a forecast of Trump signing in the week of August 3. Polymarket got there first — its contract is at 73-75% after starting May at 46%. The bill's path to law is now the most aggressively front-...
Funding
Kalshi's $1B Series F at a $22B valuation — doubling in five months — arrives as institutional trading volume surged 800% and annualized volume tripled to $178B. The raise signals prediction markets are transitioning from retail novelty into regulated Wall Street infrastructure, with Morgan Stanl...
Prediction Markets
Polymarket + Bitget Wallet Q1 2026 report: $25.7B monthly volume in March, 1.29M active wallets, annualized run-rate $240B. Retail users are returning 4x more often and trading across more categories — the 'casino' label is losing accuracy.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket integrated Chainalysis market-integrity tools — real-time onchain surveillance plus a prediction-market detection model. The deal lands after DOJ indicted Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke for $33K in bets that returned $409,881 on classified intelligence.
Prediction Markets
Gemini secured a CFTC Derivatives Clearing Organization license on April 29 — Gemini Olympus, LLC is now an approved DCO. Combined with its existing DCM authorization, the Winklevoss exchange now has a full-stack U.S. trading license to clear and settle derivatives and prediction markets.
Prediction Markets
Polymarket is in active discussions with the CFTC about bringing its primary prediction-market exchange back to the United States, setting up a direct competitive face-off with Kalshi.
Funding
An LBS + Yale study of 1.72M Polymarket accounts finds just 3.14% are skilled winners — they capture 30%+ of all gains, while 67% of accounts absorb every aggregate loss in the system across 98,906 events and $13.76B in trading volume.
Regulation & Policy
The CFTC sued New York to block state enforcement against prediction markets, while 38 attorneys general backed Massachusetts' case against Kalshi — a dual-front fight over who actually regulates event contracts.
Prediction Markets
Wisconsin's DOJ filed three Dane County complaints on April 24 against Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase and Crypto.com, alleging their sports event contracts violate state commercial gambling law — escalating the state-versus-CFTC fight over prediction markets.
Regulation & Policy
DOJ charges Fort Bragg master sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified information about the Maduro raid to place ~$33K in bets on Polymarket that paid out roughly $410K.
defi
Polymarket's V2 exchange launches today with one hour of scheduled downtime at 11:00 UTC. The upgrade introduces pUSD — a new 1:1 USDC-backed collateral — retires USDC.e, cancels all open V1 limit orders, and ships behind a $5M bug bounty and audits from Cantina and Quantstamp.